Scenarios and regulatory options for the period after the expiry of temporary protection for Ukrainian war refugees (June 2023 – January 2024)

With its decision of 4 March 2022, the Council has for the first time triggered Directive 2001/55/EC on temporary protection in the event of a mass influx of displaced persons. Temporary protection initially applies for two years and will be extended for a further year (until 2025) by a new Council decision – but not beyond that (Article 4 of the Directive). It is therefore necessary to consider the regulations that might apply and the options available after 3 March 2025. This date is not far off, and both Germany and the EU need to be prepared in terms of refugee and residence law and sociopolitical policy.

Set against various scenarios for the ongoing war, the policy brief aims to identify options for residence law and refugee policy at the German and European level. The policy brief will also consider foreign and European policy issues relating to future relations with Ukraine, as well as the challenges of integration policy and residence law within a national framework. Account will also be taken of relevant experiences with civil war refugees or those with toleration status following the Yugoslav wars in the 1990s. The aim is to present policy options at national and European level that consider different war scenarios and the interests of different actors.

The results of the project were published in a study in January 2024.

Study (Summary)

Permanent residence, return or circular mobility? Options for Ukrainian war refugees after temporary protection